Iowa

Well, I bet that took everyone but Michael Whouley by surprise.

It’s quite a troubling result for me as a strategic Dean supporter. By strategic I mean that my support is, or was, predicated on a bit of liking the guy, plus a lot of liking his fight and his organization.

But Iowa. Holy cow. Fight? Dean got rolled by bad press engineered by his rivals, and never found an effective comeback. Organiztion? 18%? Not good enough. Kerry and Edwards brought in the new voters. Dean didn’t. Dean failed a major test—and that’s the best you can spin it.

So, what now? Dean still has great strengths: broad organization (if, apparently, not all that effective) and money.

Edwards won’t get my vote in the primary season under any circumstances. Too inexperienced, and an unapologetic supporter of Bush’s war. No thanks.

Clark has been my second choice for a while. Good guy. Decent fundraising—but he opted in, meaning his campaign will go dark sometime in June as he hits the primary season money limit. If he had uncapped money and a working organization—and any experience in politics—with his resumé and TV skills, he’d be unstoppable.

I’ll be surprised if Iowa doesn’t vault Kerry back into the lead in New Hampshire. I’ll be surprised if he keeps that lead for too many days. In the eyes of a hostile press, he still has problems—stiff speaker, looks French, can’t eat a sandwich like man—but he’s shown that he’s capable of outmaneuvering a smart competitor, and manipulating that same press to vent its hostility elsewhere. And he opted-out, so he wouldn’t necessarily spend the summer lying in the dirt while Bush kicks him in the head over and over and over again. If he wins New Hampshire, he could take the whole game.

If Kerry, Clark or Dean busts from the pack and looks like a clear winner, I’ll join the bandwagon. Better to end the infighting as soon as the result is inevitable. Until then, call me strategically undecided.

Filed under: politics/2004